GT Mafia: Round 2 ((Post-Game))

[Dumezil]

Ryan seems innocent to me as well. Even if he is mafia, I think the game will be far more amusing if he stays. Besides, the detective can check him out tonight.

My vote is for Ricky.

[Former Member]

I'm gonna' run with no lynching because I really need to catch up xD

[Former Member]

Can't believe I'm doing this but... No lynch.

[Ryan Roos]

Voting Ryan (6)	Voting No Lynch (5)	Voting Crow (3)	Voting Shiraz (1)	Voting Ricky (1)	No Votes (3)
**hp Alex Zechiel Crow Doves Pats Freak 101 Syko	Æther Shiraz Phaelyn ZAR Lost	Patrick Clinger Ricky Zyvoloski Ryan Roos NW	woop	Jetta	Blizz Dom NW Nightwalker NW

[Thesealion]

I really don't see the logic in voting for Ryan. I would vote for Ricky or Shiraz but it doesn't look like they will be lynched so i think i will go No Lynch

[Former Member]

Day2 is when I'll make my real judgements, unless I've got more coursework to get on with xD

[Ara (Crow)]

Since I did miss the first 7 pages... I change my vote to no lynch.

[Syko Nachoman]

Dec 29, 2010 11:17:06 GMT -8 Matej said:

Aether's reasoning might actually make sense.
Rather than losing a villager, which is a gigantic probability at this point, just to not lose anyone.

The detective should choose one of the 3 most likely suspects and it'll be quickly seen what's true. If it is, well, the vote the next day will be easy.

I was planning to post something similar to what Aether said, so I'm happy to see that this has come up already. I like woop's plan for the detective (hopefully they're paying attention to this thread ). I'll go along with the no lynch thing until we can be more certain. Just bear in mind that we shouldn't use "no lynch" too often; it is our only means of killing mafia members.

Also, since Aether calculated the probability I wanted to calculate, I'll calculate a different one. Lots of people are saying that at least one admin is Mafia. The probability is the same as if you randomly selected four items from a group of nineteen items, four of which were mafia. The probability is one minus the chance that none of the admins are mafia, so p = 1-[(15/19)(14/18)(13/17)(12/16)] = 1-0.352=0.648. So there's a 64.8% chance that at least one admin is a mafia member. ;D
(I hope I did all that right )


Edit: In case my vote got buried in all the math, I'm changing it to no lynch.

[VS Admin]

Against my better judgement, I'll go with a no lynch for this day only because I believe we need the detective to start sleuthing before we accidentally kill a villager. Day 2 I will not be doing a no lynch no matter what.

[Former Member]

Well once I start paying attention to this ,I'm sure to know whose what and doing what etc

[Pats Freak 101]

Against my better judgement I will change to a no lynch vote. If I have done the math properly that means it has gained the 50%+ majority.

[aether]

Dec 29, 2010 14:28:52 GMT -8 Syko Nachoman said:

Dec 29, 2010 11:17:06 GMT -8 Matej said:

Aether's reasoning might actually make sense.
Rather than losing a villager, which is a gigantic probability at this point, just to not lose anyone.

The detective should choose one of the 3 most likely suspects and it'll be quickly seen what's true. If it is, well, the vote the next day will be easy.

I was planning to post something similar to what Aether said, so I'm happy to see that this has come up already. I like woop's plan for the detective (hopefully they're paying attention to this thread ). I'll go along with the no lynch thing until we can be more certain. Just bear in mind that we shouldn't use "no lynch" too often; it is our only means of killing mafia members.

Also, since Aether calculated the probability I wanted to calculate, I'll calculate a different one. Lots of people are saying that at least one admin is Mafia. The probability is the same as if you randomly selected four items from a group of nineteen items, four of which were mafia. The probability is one minus the chance that none of the admins are mafia, so p = 1-[(15/19)(14/18)(13/17)(12/16)] = 1-0.352=0.648. So there's a 64.8% chance that at least one admin is a mafia member. ;D
(I hope I did all that right )


Edit: In case my vote got buried in all the math, I'm changing it to no lynch.

68% sounds a bit high, but I haven't taken statistics in a while.

[Syko Nachoman]

Dec 29, 2010 14:44:52 GMT -8 aether said:

Dec 29, 2010 14:28:52 GMT -8 Syko Nachoman said:

I was planning to post something similar to what Aether said, so I'm happy to see that this has come up already. I like woop's plan for the detective (hopefully they're paying attention to this thread ). I'll go along with the no lynch thing until we can be more certain. Just bear in mind that we shouldn't use "no lynch" too often; it is our only means of killing mafia members.

Also, since Aether calculated the probability I wanted to calculate, I'll calculate a different one. Lots of people are saying that at least one admin is Mafia. The probability is the same as if you randomly selected four items from a group of nineteen items, four of which were mafia. The probability is one minus the chance that none of the admins are mafia, so p = 1-[(15/19)(14/18)(13/17)(12/16)] = 1-0.352=0.648. So there's a 64.8% chance that at least one admin is a mafia member. ;D
(I hope I did all that right )


Edit: In case my vote got buried in all the math, I'm changing it to no lynch.

68% sounds a bit high, but I haven't taken statistics in a while.

Trust me, I got a B+ in Probability. And going into that class, the probability of me doing so well was less than 15%

[Former Member]

I'd run with 69%

zing ;D

[aether]

Dec 29, 2010 14:57:19 GMT -8 @zar said:

I'd run with 69%

zing ;D

I change my vote to-- >.>